Converging seasonal prevalence dynamics in experimental epidemics
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Seasonal dynamics and thresholds governing recurrent epidemics.
Driven by seasonality, many common recurrent infectious diseases are characterized by strong annual, biennial and sometimes irregular oscillations in the absence of vaccination programs. Using the seasonally forced SIR epidemic model, we are able to provide new insights into the dynamics of recurrent diseases and, in some cases, specific predictions about individual outbreaks. The analysis reve...
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During 2000 and 2001, the prevalence of fungal diseases of alfalfa was surveyed underenvironmental conditions in Zanjan province, Iran. In total, 15 genera of fungal pathogens wereisolated from plants sampled from the fields. All of these disease interactions had not been previouslyrecorded in Zanjan and Colletotrichum truncatum, Leptotrochila medicaginis, Phoma medicaginis,Rhizoctonia crocorum...
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We study the attack rate, that is the total fraction of the population infected each year, for a disease with seasonally varying transmission rate. The attack rate is shown to be governed by both the reproductive number, reflecting the transmissibility of the disease, and the birth rate, which provides a source of new susceptibles. For the case of epidemics which have an annual period (like the...
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Human rabies, an infection of the nervous system, is a major public-health problem in China. In the last 60 years (1950-2010) there had been 124,255 reported human rabies cases, an average of 2,037 cases per year. However, the factors and mechanisms behind the persistence and prevalence of human rabies have not become well understood. The monthly data of human rabies cases reported by the Chine...
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The seasonality of recurrent epidemics has been largely neglected, especially where patterns are not driven by forces external to the population. Here, we use data on cowpox virus in field voles to explore the seasonal patterns in wildlife (variable abundance) populations and compare these with patterns previously found in humans. Timing in our system was associated with both the number and the...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: BMC Ecology
سال: 2011
ISSN: 1472-6785
DOI: 10.1186/1472-6785-11-14